The global financial crisis of 2008 exposed catastrophic failures in our financial system, with credit rating agencies playing a central role in the collapse. Moody’s, Standard & Poor’s (S&P), and Fitch—the three major rating agencies—consistently awarded their highest “AAA” ratings to financial products that deserved junk status. This article examines how these rating agencies contributed to the crisis and why fundamental reform remains necessary.
Nearly two decades later, the consequences continue to reverberate, with both Iceland and the United States having lost their pristine AAA ratings from the agencies that failed them during the crisis.
While rating agencies claim they issue “mere opinions,” their impact is far more significant. Their ratings are embedded in the global regulatory and market framework, affecting everything from bank capital requirements to investment fund charters. When these agencies award “AAA” ratings to products that deserve junk status, the consequences are severe and far-reaching.
The rating agencies operate as a quasi-cartel, with Moody’s and S&P dominating market share. Their fees mysteriously converged over time, suggesting coordinated behavior rather than healthy competition. This cartel-like structure created an environment where competition focused on gaining market share by lowering standards rather than improving rating accuracy.
The rating agencies’ failures weren’t isolated incidents but rather part of a pattern spanning decades across multiple asset classes and structured finance products.
All three major rating agencies overrated approximately $2 billion in securitizations backed by charged-off credit card receivables. These investment-grade rated securitizations were downgraded to junk status overnight when problems emerged. Key failures included:
Constant Proportion Debt Obligations (CPDOs) were leveraged bets on credit quality that put investors’ principal at significant risk. Despite this, both Moody’s and S&P awarded them “AAA” ratings. When market conditions changed, investors lost approximately 90% of their principal on these supposedly “risk-free” investments.
Both agencies later claimed model errors while defending unsound methodologies. S&P admitted a model error but insisted this “did not result in a ratings change”—ignoring that their entire ratings approach was fundamentally flawed.
The most devastating rating failures occurred in structured finance products, particularly those backed by mortgage loans.
Rating agencies awarded “AAA” ratings to securitizations backed by increasingly risky mortgage portfolios. They failed to account for:
CDOs repackaged tranches of already misrated RMBSs, compounding errors through multiple layers of securitization. “AAA” tranches of these deals showed a high probability of significant principal loss from the start.
Credit derivatives allowed the multiplication of risk, as the same bad assets could be referenced multiple times across different deals. The so-called “super senior” tranches—supposedly safer than “AAA”—often resulted in investors losing nearly their entire investment.
Credit derivatives allowed the multiplication of risk, as the same bad assets could be referenced multiple times across different deals. The so-called “super senior” tranches—supposedly safer than “AAA”—often resulted in investors losing nearly their entire investment.
The rating agencies’ approach to risk assessment was fundamentally flawed across multiple dimensions.
Rating agencies defined their own risk scales without independent verification. They could change methodologies and benchmarks at will, effectively “legislating” changes in global capital requirements without oversight or accountability.
Rating agencies focused on correlation models rather than the more critical metrics of probability of default and loss given default. These models were highly unstable, with small input changes causing huge output variations.
While rating agencies aren’t responsible for performing due diligence themselves, they should have demanded evidence that underwriters had thoroughly examined the underlying assets. Instead, they rated securities without verifying the quality of the collateral.
Rating agencies use different modeling approaches for structured finance products, creating opportunities for regulatory arbitrage and inconsistent risk assessment.
All three major rating agencies suffer from what can be termed “macular degeneration” regarding super senior tranches. The agencies don’t acknowledge the existence of super senior tranches as a distinct rating category, treating them merely as a “retrofit” that has nothing to do with their rating methodologies.
This creates a fundamental problem: synthetic portfolios can be tranched in different ways, but rating agencies treat “AAA” tranches identically regardless of whether they serve as first-loss protection for super senior tranches.
Unlike investment banks, rating agencies had no “Chinese Wall” separating analysts from business managers whose bonuses depended on increasing revenue and market share. While much attention focused on the “issuer-pays” model, the deeper problem was that business managers within rating agencies prioritized market share and revenue over ratings accuracy.
Banks frequently hired rating agency analysts familiar with rating methodologies, creating incentives for analysts to be accommodating in hopes of future employment. This revolving door undermined the independence necessary for objective credit analysis.
Rating agencies marketed risk consulting and models to the same banks whose securities they rated, creating additional conflicts of interest that compromised their independence.
The inadequacy of these reforms is evident in the continued rating volatility and downgrades that followed, including the loss of AAA status for major sovereigns that were victims of the original rating failures.
The Dodd-Frank Act attempted to address rating agency issues but failed to solve fundamental problems:
Rehabilitating the credit rating system requires fundamental reforms across multiple dimensions.
The Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organization (NRSRO) designation should be revoked until rating agencies demonstrate they can produce accurate, reliable ratings. This designation has become meaningless given the systematic failures across asset classes.
A third party (such as an international regulator) should define benchmarks and rating scales. Rating agencies would no longer be free to choose benchmarks or redefine the meaning of ratings at will.
Regulators should rank rating agencies based solely on accuracy and disqualify those that consistently produce inaccurate ratings. Rating accuracy must become the primary—and perhaps only—measurement of success.
Rating agencies must review evidence of thorough due diligence, particularly in the face of red flags suggesting potential fraud or misrepresentation. They should demand statistical sampling and verification of underlying assets.
Credit derivatives add complexity and opacity that rating agencies have proven incapable of assessing accurately. They should be banned from rated structured finance transactions to reduce systemic risk and improve transparency.
The global market and regulatory framework has been built around credit ratings, even though sophisticated market professionals know better than to rely on them. Until there is an objective, reproducible, and reliable method of providing credit ratings, it will be impossible to rehabilitate the alternative banking system.
Many investors believe ratings indicate how secure an investment is as a store of wealth, but this is a fundamental misconception. Ratings provide limited information about:
Rating agencies’ charges seem to magically converge, partly because fee information is easily leaked and partly because there are only three major agencies chasing structured finance business. This lack of real competition contributes to declining standards.
Rather than minor tweaks to a broken system, fundamental reform is needed. Rating agencies must be held to a higher standard, with rating accuracy as the primary measurement of success.
Since ratings are used globally, rating companies should be regulated by an international body rather than piecemeal national regulation that creates regulatory arbitrage opportunities.
Until objective, reproducible, and reliable rating methods are established, investors should approach credit ratings with extreme caution, particularly for structured products. Independent credit analysis remains essential for prudent risk management.
The rehabilitation of structured finance markets requires addressing not just rating agency problems, but the entire ecosystem of perverse incentives that led to the 2008 financial crisis. This includes reforming underwriter incentives, regulatory oversight, and market transparency requirements.
Despite regulatory reforms following the 2008 financial crisis, the major credit rating agencies—Moody’s, Standard & Poor’s (S&P), and Fitch—continued to face scrutiny for both their pre-crisis conduct and ongoing rating failures. The pattern of inflated AAA ratings, conflicts of interest, and inadequate risk assessment persisted well into the 2010s and 2020s, demonstrating that fundamental problems remained unresolved.
The scale of rating agency failures during the financial crisis eventually led to significant financial penalties, though these came years after the damage was done.
In January 2017, Moody’s agreed to pay nearly $864 million to settle with the U.S. Department of Justice, 21 states, and the District of Columbia over allegations that it contributed to the 2008 financial crisis by inflating ratings on risky mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) from 2004 to 2007. The settlement highlighted how Moody’s assigned AAA ratings to securities that later turned out to be junk, misleading investors about their risk. Connecticut’s lawsuit specifically claimed Moody’s knowingly inflated ratings on toxic mortgage securities due to pressure from investment banks to maintain market share.
Standard & Poor’s settled with the U.S. Department of Justice for $1.375 billion (totaling $1.5 billion with other settlements) to resolve allegations that it engaged in a scheme to defraud investors by issuing inflated ratings on residential mortgage-backed securities and CDOs before the 2008 crisis. The lawsuit claimed S&P knowingly assigned AAA ratings to structured products backed by subprime mortgages, despite internal evidence suggesting these securities were high-risk. The settlement included admissions that S&P altered its models to gain market share, compromising rating accuracy.
Rather than learning from past mistakes, rating agencies continued to demonstrate the same fundamental flaws in their approach to structured products and complex financial instruments.
A 2019 Wall Street Journal analysis of approximately 30,000 ratings of structured securities issued between 2008 and 2019 found that S&P, Moody’s, and Fitch continued to face challenges with rating accuracy. The analysis showed that while post-crisis reforms aimed to improve ratings, the major agencies still issued high ratings to some structured products that later underperformed. The study indicated that increased competition did not necessarily lead to more accurate ratings, as agencies sometimes adjusted criteria to gain market share, echoing pre-2008 behaviors. This raised concerns about the reliability of ratings for post-crisis structured products like asset-backed securities (ABS) and commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS).
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission issued multiple fines against both Moody’s and S&P for violations occurring well after the crisis. In 2018, the SEC fined Moody’s for failing to follow internal control procedures and consistently apply credit rating symbols in structured finance ratings. Similarly, in 2015, the SEC issued orders against S&P for violations and fraud in rating structured products, accusing S&P of a “race to the bottom” by lowering standards to compete for market share. These actions targeted post-2008 practices, where both agencies were found to have issued ratings for structured products like RMBS and ABS without adhering to rigorous methodologies.
During the China property market crisis involving companies like Evergrande, Moody’s, S&P, and Fitch faced criticism for maintaining investment-grade ratings for developers’ bonds into 2020 and early 2021, despite mounting evidence of liquidity issues and unsustainable debt levels. Evergrande’s bonds were rated Baa3 (Moody’s) and BBB (S&P and Fitch) as late as 2020, but by late 2021, these ratings were downgraded to junk status as defaults loomed. The rapid downgrades suggested that the agencies underestimated systemic risks in China’s property sector, with structured products tied to these developers seeing sharp value declines.
S&P and Moody’s had rated many commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) tranches issued post-2009, particularly in 2017-2019, as AAA or investment-grade, assuming stable cash flows from underlying properties. However, by 2020, these ratings proved overly optimistic as delinquencies spiked during the COVID-19 pandemic. S&P downgraded 63% of its AAA-rated CMBS tranches from 2017-2019 to lower grades, and Moody’s followed suit with similar downgrades. The agencies were criticized for not anticipating the sector’s vulnerability to economic shocks.
Moody’s and S&P assigned high ratings (AAA) to auto loan asset-backed securities issued in the mid-2010s, particularly those backed by subprime auto loans. By 2018-2019, these securities faced higher-than-expected default rates as subprime borrowers struggled, leading to downgrades. Certain ABS deals rated AAA by Moody’s in 2016 were downgraded to A or lower by 2019 as delinquency rates rose. The agencies were criticized for underestimating risks in the subprime auto market, where lax underwriting standards mirrored pre-2008 mortgage issues.
Fitch and Moody’s assigned AAA ratings to senior tranches of collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) issued between 2017 and 2019, despite growing evidence of weakening credit quality in underlying leveraged loans. By 2020, during the COVID-19 market turmoil, Fitch downgraded 25% of its AAA-rated CLO tranches issued in 2018-2019, and Moody’s downgraded 20% of its top-rated tranches, as underlying loan defaults rose. The agencies were criticized for relying on optimistic economic assumptions and failing to account for systemic risks in the leveraged loan market.
Moody’s settled for $130 million with a California pension fund over allegations that it misrepresented the risk of structured financial products, including residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS), in the pre- and post-crisis periods. The lawsuit claimed Moody’s inflated ratings to maintain business relationships with issuers, affecting investments made by the pension fund in the early 2010s. This case underscored how misstated ratings from the pre-crisis era continued to affect investors post-2008, with pension funds suffering losses due to reliance on inaccurate ratings.
These post-crisis failures revealed that the fundamental issues identified before and during the 2008 crisis remained unresolved:
The consistent pattern of these failures—from pre-crisis CDOs to post-crisis CLOs, from subprime mortgages to Chinese developer bonds—demonstrates that cosmetic regulatory reforms were insufficient to address the rating agencies’ core problems. The agencies’ fundamental approach to risk assessment, their business model incentives, and their role in the global financial system remained unchanged, setting the stage for continued failures in different asset classes and markets.
The structured finance failures extended beyond corporate securities to sovereign ratings, demonstrating the global scope of rating agency incompetence. The rating agencies’ credibility never fully recovered. Post-crisis downgrades of major sovereigns demonstrate the lasting damage to the global financial system.
Moody’s maintained Iceland’s “Aaa” rating despite clear signs of excessive leverage and foreign currency borrowing. By October 2008, Iceland’s banking system collapsed, plunging the country into bankruptcy with external debt of approximately $218,000 for each of its 320,000 citizens.
In 2025, after a long battle toward economic stability, The rating agencies have assigned long-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings as follows:
After massive bank bailouts, the “AAA” rating of the United States became politically expedient rather than economically justified. The U.S. dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency masked fundamental weaknesses that traditional rating analysis would have identified. But even that advantage could not save the USA from ratings downgrades.
With Moody’s May 2025 rating downgrade, the USA lost her pre-2008 financial crisis AAA rating from the three ratings agencies that played a role in damaging the USA’s economy.
The rating agencies’ credibility never fully recovered from their 2008 failures. Their post-crisis downgrades of major sovereigns demonstrate the lasting damage to the global financial system and their continued inability to provide reliable forward-looking credit assessments.
The systematic downgrades of Iceland (from overrated AAA to current A-range) and the United States (from AAA to AA+/Aa1 across all three agencies) illustrate that the fundamental problems identified in 2008 were never truly resolved. These downgrades occurred years after the obvious problems should have been reflected in ratings.
The systematic failures of Moody’s, S&P, and Fitch in rating structured finance products represent one of the most significant regulatory failures in modern financial history. Their inability to accurately assess credit risk, combined with conflicts of interest and methodology problems, contributed directly to the 2008 global financial crisis.
The long-term consequences are evident today: Iceland, which was overrated AAA before its 2008 collapse, now maintains solid A-range ratings after a difficult recovery, while the United States—the supposed safe haven—has been systematically downgraded by all three agencies between 2011 and 2025, losing its AAA status from the very agencies that enabled the crisis.
Recovery requires acknowledging the depth of these failures, implementing comprehensive reforms, and holding rating agencies accountable for their role in enabling widespread financial fraud. Until fundamental changes are made, the global financial system remains vulnerable to similar crises driven by misrated structured finance products.
Janet Tavakoli is the president of Tavakoli Structured Finance founded in 2003. She is a globally recognized structured finance expert and derivatives authority who has advised financial regulators, testified as an expert witness in major financial litigation, and authored definitive works on credit derivatives and securitization.
For comprehensive analysis of structured finance products and rating agency reform, consult Tavakoli Structured Finance.
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