Originally published January 3, 2008 | Updated July 2025 By Janet Tavakoli, president of Tavakoli Structured Finance MBIA, Ambac and Other Monolines Will Lose Their “AAA” Monolines will lose their “AAA” ratings and are egregiously overrated. Both the default risk and the loss given default of their exposure to subprime loans and gravely flawed collateralized
July 20, 2025 By Janet Tavakoli Introduction The 2008 financial crisis represented a defining moment for American democracy and capitalism. While the immediate crisis required swift action, the approach taken by both the Bush and Obama administrations established dangerous precedents that continue to influence our financial system today. This analysis examines the failure to prosecute
Originally published as ‘The Elusive Income of Synthetic CDOs’ in the Journal of Structured Finance, Winter 2006, Volume 11, Number 4. Updated with references to post-financial crisis analyses in July 2025. by Janet Tavakoli Growth Surge in Synthetic Collateralized Debt Obligations Investment grade synthetic collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) will continue to gain market share, because
Originally published as separate commentaries 2009-2014, consolidated and updated 2025 By Janet Tavakoli The 2008 financial crisis exposed not only systemic failures in banking and regulation, but fundamental weaknesses in financial journalism. From intimidation campaigns that silenced early warnings to post-crisis revisionism by pundits claiming prescience they never demonstrated, the media’s role in both enabling
November 10, 2009 Updated with additional analysis through 2025by Janet Tavakoli Executive Summary Goldman wasn’t the only contributor to the systemic risk that nearly toppled the global financial markets, but it was the key contributor to the systemic risk posed by AIG’s near bankruptcy. When it came to the credit derivatives (insurance-like contracts that pay
by Janet Tavakoli Collateralized Debt Obligations: Definition and Overview A Collateralized Debt Obligation (CDO) is backed by portfolios of assets that may include a combination of bonds, loans, securitized receivables, asset-backed securities, tranches of other collateralized debt obligations, or credit derivatives referencing any of the former. Some market practitioners define a CDO as being backed
by Janet Tavakoli The most common type of credit derivative is the credit default swap. A credit default swap or option is simply an exchange of a fee in exchange for a payment if a credit default event occurs. Credit default swaps differ from total return swaps in that the investor does not take the
This page is comprised of an archive of public commentaries written by Janet Tavakoli from 2003-2014. Some commentaries have been incorporated into, or appended to, updates. Finance articles that have been particularly popular are listed on a separate page by topic; see finance articles to browse by topic. See also the Blog for more recent
Issues and Solutions for Restoring Credibility to the Credit Rating Agencies and Rehabilitating the Alternative Banking System By Janet Tavakoli, President of Tavakoli Structured Finance, Inc. July 26, 2011 The Fall of Credit Rating Agencies: Revoking the NRSRO Designation Note: Go here for a concise summary of this long article. Ten rating organizations are designated
Early Public Warnings About this page: This page comprises finance articles written by Janet Tavakoli. See also the press section for articles in which Janet Tavakoli has been interviewed and quoted, and see video interviews from 2003 to present. For commentaries written by Janet Tavakoli from 2003-2014 see Archives of Public Commentaries Authored by Janet Tavakoli. Structured
MBIA escalated its risk. The bond insurer wrote credit derivatives on new “Triple-A” risk backed by malignant mortgage loans, including built-to-fail mezzanine CDOs. It didn’t matter how much “confidence” Wall Street, rating agencies, bond insurers, and regulators had in maintaining a collective financial lie; MBIA was unstable.
By Janet Tavakoli Updated June 2025 Wall Street Insider vs Media Narrative My Experience in Salomon’s 1985 Training Class I was in the Salomon Brothers’ 1985 training class that Michael Lewis lampooned in his amusing book, Liar’s Poker. Imagine my surprise to see him billed as a trader on 60 Minutes, since he was actually